World Bank Says Nigeria’s Single-Digit Inflation Target Unrealistic
The World Bank has described the Federal Government’s ambition to achieve single-digit inflation in the short term as unrealistic, warning that Nigeria remains among a handful of African countries still struggling with high consumer prices.
In its latest Africa’s Pulse Report, released on Tuesday, the global lender projected that Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Sudan, Zambia, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Zimbabwe will continue to experience double-digit inflation through 2025.
According to the report, while 37 of Africa’s 47 economies are on track to maintain single-digit inflation by 2026, Nigeria remains an outlier due to persistent structural challenges, including currency depreciation, high food and energy costs, and supply chain bottlenecks that continue to fuel price instability.
The projection contrasts with repeated assurances from government officials — including Finance Minister Wale Edun and CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso — who have maintained that ongoing fiscal and monetary reforms will soon bring inflation down to single digits.
At the recent CBN Governor’s Annual Lecture Series in Lagos, Cardoso reaffirmed that achieving single-digit inflation remains a medium-term target, despite current headline inflation hovering above 20 per cent.
However, the World Bank report noted that while inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa is easing — with the region’s median inflation rate falling from 9.3 per cent in 2022 to 4.5 per cent in 2024 — Nigeria continues to lag behind its peers.
“In 2025, nearly 60 per cent of Sub-Saharan African countries will experience a slowdown in inflation, but nine nations, including Nigeria, are still expected to record double-digit rates,” the report stated.
The Bank also projected that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy will grow by 3.8 per cent in 2025 and average 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2027, driven by improved commodity prices and investment inflows.
Nigeria’s growth forecast was revised upward by 0.6 percentage points, buoyed by rising oil production and modest capital inflows. Nonetheless, inflation remains a key threat to consumer spending and business confidence.
“Nigeria’s inflation trajectory continues to undermine consumer demand and macroeconomic stability,” the report added, warning that structural bottlenecks and exchange rate pass-through effects remain major constraints.
The World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen, observed that while countries like Kenya, Tanzania, and Côte d’Ivoire have managed to keep inflation within single digits through prudent fiscal management and stable exchange rates, Nigeria’s case remains “particularly challenging.”
The report further cautioned that despite Africa’s overall economic resilience, regional growth remains insufficient to generate enough decent jobs for its expanding population. It urged governments to focus on reducing business costs, strengthening institutions, and promoting private sector investment.