By Prince Iroka Nigeria’s upstream oil sector is witnessing a dramatic turnaround, with crude oil losses from theft and metering issues dropping to their lowest levels in nearly 16 years. In July 2025, daily losses stood at 9,600 barrels per day (bpd), the lowest figure since 2009 when losses dropped to all-time low of 8,500 bpd. This is based on trends of crude oil losses year-to-date July 2025, released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). This progress marks a major leap forward in the Commission’s relentless drive to eliminate all forms of crude losses across Nigeria’s oilfields and pipelines. Between January and July 2025, crude oil losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 barrels per day over the seven-month period. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry. By comparison, the entire 2024 calendar year recorded 4.1 million barrels lost at a daily average of 11,300 barrels. Remarkably, in just the first seven months of 2025, losses were cut by 50.2%, with only 2.04 million barrels lost over the period. The figures for the period ending July 2025 also represent a dramatic 94.57% drop in crude oil losses compared to the full year of 2021, when Nigeria lost a staggering 37.6 million barrels at a daily average of 102,900 barrels. So far in 2025, only 2.04 million barrels have been lost, which is a reduction of 35.56 million barrels compared to the 37.6 million barrels lost in 2021, underscoring the scale of progress made in just four years. Crude oil losses in 2021 were the highest recorded in nearly 23 years, making it the peak year between 2002 and July 2025. Since the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act in 2021, Nigeria has recorded steady progress in reducing crude oil losses. In 2021, losses stood at 37.6 million barrels, averaging 102,900 barrels per day. By 2022, this dropped to 20.9 million barrels at a daily average of 57,200 barrels. The downward trend continued in 2023, with losses reduced to 4.3 million barrels at 11,900 barrels per day. Even more progress was made in 2024, as losses were further contained to 4.1 million barrels, averaging 11,300 barrels per day. The Commission has adopted a balanced mix of kinetic and non-kinetic strategies in tackling oil losses. On the kinetic front, the Commission has continued to collaborate closely with security agencies, operators and communities. On the non-kinetic front, NUPRC has implemented strategic regulatory measures to close systemic loopholes. One key initiative is the metering audit across upstream facilities to ensure accurate measurement of production and exports. To further strengthen control, the NUPRC under the leadership of Engineer Gbenga Komolafe approved 37 new crude oil evacuation routes to combat oil theft.

By Prince Iroka Early hopes of an end to fuel scarcity was heightened yesterday, as the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery began the lifting of Premium Motor Spirit(PMS), popularly called petrol. The commencement of lifting of petrol which commenced at about 1.40pm has put an end to speculations and anxiety among stakeholders and Nigerians especially as to when to expect the first Dangote petrol at retail outlets. Speaking at the refinery plant during an inspection of loading activities at the gantry, Vice President, Dangote Industries Limited, Mr. Edwin Devakumar, said the gantry has the capacity to load 2,900 trucks daily with 40 trucks simultaneously in 40 minutes. An elated Devakumar, said for 52 years the country has battled with petroleum products shortages, assuring that the production capacity at the refinery was capable of meeting the petroleum products needs of Nigeria with a huge surplus to export. “Today is a moment of pride for every Nigerian because this is a Nigerian-owned refinery built by a Nigerian EPC contractor producing petrol for Nigeria alongside other petroleum product.This is the largest single train refinery in the world and we are very excited about it.He, however, assured that the influx of petrol tankers on the road should not be a concern, saying production evacuation is a blend of trucking and vessel. According to him, for products going to coastal locations such as Calabar, Delta among other places, products could be moved through the waterways using vessels while those within Lagos and neigbouring states would be through trucking.He said the company has received proposals from firms to build pipeline for product evcuatiuon, which he said is alo a viable option that could be explored. He said the NNPC Ltd could take the lead in that regard by constructing pipelines to serve its depots in Mosimi, Ogun State and Atlas Cove in Lagos to ease transportation of petroleum products.Similarly, some marketers who spoke to Daily Sun in confidence said there are no immediate plans to return to petroleum product importation, saying the sector was not yet fully deregulated.“As you can see NNPC is the sole offtaker from Dangote refinery. That tells you we are still operating the old order of NNPC being a monopoly. All other marketers will have to buy from NNPC. They will be the ones to fix the price. As at today, NNPC retail outlets are selling petrol at N855 per litre which is far below the landing cost of petrol which is around N1,200 per litre. This is one of the reason Dangote has failed to tell Nigerians the actual cost of its petrol. But from our findings, his petrol cannot be less than N1,250 per litre. Technically, NNPC would still be subsidizing the product for Nigerians and that is why they are the sole offtaker,”If we dare import today, who will buy from us? Our price cannot in anyway be cheaper than what you will get at NNPC filling station. That means we will run into losses because the market is not yet competitive,’’.Meanwhile, the Lagos State Government said it has devised a comprehensive traffic management strategy to guarantee free traffic flow along the Lekki-Ajah corridor ahead of the refinery’s commencement of the distribution of refined petrol to outlets. The Special Adviser to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu on Transportation, Sola Giwa, made this known in a statement issued yesterday to reaffirm the state government’s commitment to safeguarding citizens’ welfare and maintaining orderly traffic. He confirmed that the Lagos State Traffic Management Authority (LASTMA) had been fortified with state-of-the-art equipment and trained personnel to be strategically deployed to oversee and regulate traffic flow within the affected areas. Giwa promised the residents and commuters in the Lekki-Ajah vicinity that thorough preparations had been made, urging them to remain calm and confident in the state government’s capabilities.The statement added: “In collaboration with relevant stakeholders, LASTMA has mobilised advanced tow trucks and emergency response equipment to promptly address anticipated potential traffic disruptions. Medical ambulance services are also on high alert to ensure rapid response in emergencies.

By Prince Iroka, Nigeria’s hemorrhaging economy may be on the brink of collapse due to the inability of indigenous companies that acquired divested assets from some International Oil Companies (IOCs) to pay relevant taxes.In 2022, Shell Companies in Nigeria paid the Nigerian government a total of $4.5 billion as production entitlements, taxes, royalties and fees.The oil and gas industry which currently accounts for about 10 per cent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), contributes about 70 percent of government revenues and over 90 per cent of export revenues.But, there are fears from industry observers that these figures for GDP and revenue contributions would be reduced drastically in the years ahead due to the current wave of divestment which may not likely to abate Their fears was further triggered on Tuesday when Shell announced the sale of its Nigerian subsidiary Shell Petroleum Development Company(SPDC) onshore and gas assets Limited to Renaissance Africa Energy in $2.4 billion deal.For those familiar with operations in the oil and gas industry, they saw the Shell exit coming due to the inability of Government to address industry concerns which included; pipeline vandalism, multiplicity of taxes and the big elephant in the room oil theft.In 2010, IOCs openly decried increasing sabotage, community crises, insecurity, oil theft and most recently a rising global withdrawal of financing for fossil fuel activities in solidarity for actions against climate change.Recall, that at COP 26 in Glasgow, Scotland, Nigeria made a commitment alongside other global nations for the discontinuation of fossil fuel production by 2060.Already, the results of these divestments is beginning to take a negative effect in the oil industry with the inability of Nigeria to meet its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quotaDivestments worth over N20.8 trillion already concluded by the IOCs are Exxonmobil offloading assets worth $15 billion, Shell;$2.4 billion, Eni;$5 billion, Conocophillips :$1.65 billion. There are still many more divestment plans under wraps by some IOCs which would be unveiled in the months ahead. However, there are concerns that indigenous oil and gas companies angling to take over these assets lack what it takes to move the industry to the next level. Some of the concerns expressed by industry stakeholders are; funding, lack of strong corporate governance structure, lack of technical capacity and the shift from fossil fuel to other cleaner sources of energy as canvassed at COP 26.9 Confirming the possibility of revenue loss for Government, immediate past Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), Mr. Simbi Wabote, had last year during a breakfast meeting with editors in Abuja raised the alarm that the divestment of onshore oil and gas assets by the International Oil Companies (IOCs) is depleting the federal government’s tax revenues due to the refusal of some of the indigenous players who acquired the assets to pay tax. Wabote, who also enumerated the enormous gains of the ongoing divestment of assets by the multinational companies, noted that while the IOCs that operated the assets paid tax as at when due, some of the indigenous Nigerian companies that bought the assets have stopped paying tax. Wabote accused indigenous operators of flouting the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development (NOGICD) Act of 2010. He, however, disclosed that with the implementation of the NOGICD Act and divestment of assets by the IOCs, indigenous players have moved from near-zero participation in the oil and gas sector to the point where they are now responsible for 15 per cent of Nigeria’s oil production and 60 per cent of the country’s domestic gas supply. “But beyond the positives, it must also be observed that the divestment of producing assets to indigenous players poses significant challenges for the implementation of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act. The worries are predicated on research findings and our experience in implementing the NOGICD Act in the past 13 years which indicates that indigenous firms, especially the indigenous operating companies are serial violators of the Nigerian Content Act. “In many instances, international operators tend to comply with the Nigerian Content because it is in their DNA to obey laws or they have to show evidence of compliance to their home offices. “On the contrary, many indigenous companies feel entitled and assume they can get away with non-compliance. At other times they want to save costs to the detriment of the local economy,” Wabote explained. For his part, former Director, Center for Petroleum Energy Economics and Law, University of Ibadan, Prof Adeola Adenikinju, in a telephone interview with Daily Sun said he doubts the one-on –one experience of the new asset owners in terms of international reach and financial capability needed to run such assets. ‘‘One would have been happier if these companies were given green field asset to test their capability as against this Shell deal. Some companies that acquired such assets in the past are struggling to break even while some have failed to add value to the assets,’’. Adenikinju fears may not be unconnected with a recent agreement by 20 countries to end financing for fossil fuel projects abroad. Several countries had already agreed to end international financing for coal, but this agreement is the first of its kind to include oil and gas projects as well. The US, UK, Canada, Italy, Switzerland and New Zealand, among others, were party to the agreement, which commits to “end new direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector by the end of 2022, except in limited and clearly defined circumstances that are consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit and the goals of the Paris Agreement.”

By Prince Iroka In other to reduce the turnaround time and bottlenecks often associated with oil firms wishing to enlist in the capital market, a business lawyer, Mr. Sam Aiboni, has called for the establishment of Special Purpose Acquisition Company to address this setback. Speaking at the Legal Business Conference and Awards in Lagos recently, organised by Legal Business Network International with the theme: ‘‘Powering Tomorrow’s Economy Today’’, Aiboni said a major challenge facing firms with marginal field license to set up business in the oil and gas sector of Nigeria, has been a demonstration of years of practical experience which comes from a number of years annual returns before such bidding goes to the stock market to raise money. “What this special purpose vehicle does is that, because it’s already listed and doesn’t have fresh listing requirements, all that is needed for oil and gas firms that needs to raise funds is for them to go for Initial Public Offer (IPO) and the money will be raised at the capital market based on their existing listing”According to him, such investor does not need to approach the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) when they have oil and project to execute “Before an entity could meet up with SEC requirement and subsequently listed on the capital market “The Nigerian Exchange Group”, it is always a tasking exercise and very bureaucratic in nature. So what this Special Purpose Vehicle does is to enable the firm raise capital in a faster way because the SPV is already listed. “This SPV can be established by the Federal Government, Ministry of Finance, shareholders of NNPCL , a group of oil and gas giants can even do it. What is important is for an entity to have gone through the SEC process and get it registered so it time would have already being saved as against going through fresh registration process. This kind of SPV is being used in most developed economies”Aiboni who is also the vice Chairman, Energy and Environment, Section of Business Law (SBL-NBA), said the quantum of money required to support the energy and power sector is enormous, hence the need for best brains in the country to synergise to extricate Nigeria from the shackles of epileptic power supply across the country. “NNPCL shareholders should take up the responsibility of stimulating the sector and invest in the market by targeting specific projects and develop them”He urged Nigerians particularly leaders to approach the country’s endemic challenges with the eye of opportunities, noting that although there are a lot to worry about today, however Nigeria can still come out of the woods. “It’s not really a good time for us as a country. It is high time leaders invest in knowledge acquisition. We’re not really doing enough in research and development that is why we keep depending on developed economies for importation of almost everything. “There are fewer foreign Direct investment, international divestment, dearth of funding among others. So it’s an opportunity for us to innovatively find ways to invest in human capital and transform our country”The oil and gas consultant maintained that Nigeria should apologize to the defunct NEPA, having failed to improve in power supply since the Authority was unbundled. “We must take tough decision if we must progress, the private sector partnering with the government is the only way. Though the challenges seem overwhelming, but then we still have hope, we are not running away from this country. All of we need to do is tell ourselves the truth and do the right thing at the right time for the right results” he maintained.