China, India Watch Closely as Myanmar Rebels Advance on Strategic Western Frontier

Rakhine State, Myanmar – The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group in Myanmar, has seized control of 14 out of 17 townships in Rakhine State, escalating a pivotal chapter in the country’s ongoing civil war and drawing the attention of regional powers China and India.

Flush with military victories, the AA has vowed to capture the rest of Rakhine, including the state capital, Sittwe, and Kyaukphyu, a port town central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Analysts say the group may soon launch a monsoon offensive to secure its position before critical military resources deplete.

The strategic advances come amid growing humanitarian and political concerns, including accusations of abuses against Rohingya civilians, soaring prices, and mass displacement. The United Nations estimates over two million people in Rakhine face starvation as the junta imposes supply blockades.

Residents describe lawlessness in Sittwe, now accessible only by air and sea. “They’re like gangsters breaking into homes in broad daylight,” one evacuee said.

The Arakan Army’s military and political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), claims it is liberating the region from military occupation. However, international observers warn of a worsening crisis for Rohingya communities, with some reports alleging massacres and forced recruitment — claims the AA denies.

Strategic Stakes for China and India

Rakhine’s coastal towns have become flashpoints not only in Myanmar’s internal conflict but also in regional geopolitics.

• Kyaukphyu hosts a deep-sea port and pipelines linking Myanmar to China’s Yunnan province. Despite backing Myanmar’s junta, Beijing is reportedly prepared for the AA to take control — provided its investments remain protected.
• India also has infrastructure at stake, including the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, which links India’s northeast to the Bay of Bengal through AA-held territory.

Control over these assets could allow the AA to tax regional trade, repositioning it as a powerful actor in the region.

The Next Phase of War

With an estimated 40,000 fighters, the AA is now the country’s largest ethnic armed force. Military analyst Anthony Davis warns that a decisive battle for Kyaukphyu could become “one of the most consequential and costliest campaigns” in the war.

While the Myanmar military regains territory elsewhere and prepares for widely criticized elections in December, the AA continues to consolidate influence across Rakhine and beyond. The Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar notes the AA’s growing alliances and reach, especially among the country’s youth fighters.

However, the situation remains volatile. The AA’s ULA calls for vigilance, warning against the junta’s historical “divide and rule” tactics.

“This time, we are confident that the resistance forces can achieve meaningful change in the country,” said a ULA representative.