Trump’s Ukraine Weapons Pledge Signals Possible Confrontation Says Moscow Analyst

MOSCOW — Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent pledge to supply more weapons to Ukraine may signal the start of a new, more confrontational phase in U.S.-Russia relations, according to Moscow-based foreign policy analyst Andrey Kortunov.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Kortunov said Moscow is closely watching how Trump balances domestic expectations with his foreign policy strategy.

“Expectation management is the name of the game in Moscow,” Kortunov said. “If you look back at Trump’s first term, there were high hopes of resetting relations with Russia, but ultimately, those negotiations led nowhere.”

With Trump potentially seeking a breakthrough in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Kortunov noted it remains an “open question” whether the Kremlin would be willing to give Trump a diplomatic “win.”

“It depends on how much Trump will need to claim victory,” he said. “I imagine there are many consultations happening behind closed doors between Moscow and Washington — the key is whether both Trump and [President Vladimir] Putin can walk away from a deal looking like winners to their domestic audiences.”

The analyst’s comments come amid growing speculation about backchannel talks between the U.S. and Russia, as both sides weigh potential outcomes of the war that would satisfy political imperatives at home.