U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has reportedly tapped Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as his secretary of state. If Rubio were confirmed, it would make him the first Latino to hold the nation’s senior cabinet position.
Rubio, who has been in the Senate for 14 years, should not face any confirmation headaches. Even temporarily losing his seat with a handpicked Republican replacement, the GOP should have an easy 52-vote majority in the upper chamber.
Rubio ticks nearly all the boxes for a future Trump foreign policy: He is hawkish against all the usual suspects. He is suspicious of, if not belligerent, toward China, hostile to Iran, not keen on Venezuela, rueful of the Cuba his parents left, and indifferent toward Gaza and Ukraine. The only problem with Rubio, from Trump’s point of view, is that he might be too hawkish.
Trump campaigned on a pledge to end wars. He did so messily in Afghanistan, and he has vowed to do so in Ukraine. He called off a large-scale attack on Iran during his first term and alternated between berating China and selling it soybeans. The big question is whether Trump’s vision of an “America First” foreign policy has enough room for the small diplomatic wars—a fresh recourse to sanctions on Iran, redoubled pressure on Venezuela, or an overhaul of U.S. policy toward Cuba—that Rubio’s worldview would encompass, or whether Rubio would have to set his sights exclusively on China.
Rubio has enough ammunition. For years, he has been on the record warning about both the security and economic challenges Beijing poses, with the latter closer to Trump’s heart. Like Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, with whom Rubio vied for the second spot on the ticket, Rubio has long warned about China’s role in hollowing out the American manufacturing heartland and could be expected to take a firm line in any future U.S.-China talks over trade and the economy.
The one other question mark that might have hung over Rubio—the insults he and Trump readily traded eight years ago—shouldn’t be an issue. Trump’s vice president, Vance, compared his running mate to Adolf Hitler, and his stock only went higher.
Trump had two smart and capable secretaries of state during his first term, if not always embodied in the same person at the same time. If nominated and confirmed, Rubio could decide which of those two boxes, beyond the hawkish ones, he wants and is able to check.
